With the explosive popularity of ChatGPT, the entire AI hardware market has reached a singularity. In addition to GPUs, HBM memory has also entered a phase of explosive growth. According to TrendForce, global HBM capacity was approximately 180 million GB in 2022, grew by about 60% in 2023 to reach 290 million GB, and will grow by another 30% in 2024. If HBM is priced at USD 20 per GB, the global HBM market size was approximately USD 3.63 billion in 2022, and is expected to reach USD 12.74 billion by 2026, corresponding to a CAGR of approximately 37%.
However, global HBM production is basically monopolized by SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. Among them, SK Hynix holds the largest market share in the HBM market. It is the sole supplier of HBM3 memory for Nvidia, which accounts for 80% of the AI GPU market, and began mass production of the latest generation HBM3E in March. Competing suppliers such as Micron and Samsung are developing their own HBM products to prevent SK Hynix from dominating the market. In the overall market, Chinese manufacturers are basically completely absent.
At the same time, because the U.S. BIS 2022 rules targeting high-computing-power chips set relatively high control thresholds under the 3A090 indicators, manufacturers such as Nvidia continued to supply China by reducing chip interconnect speeds. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Commerce believed that Chinese companies were obtaining advanced computing chips through overseas subsidiaries or other overseas channels in order to circumvent license-related regulations. The 2023 new rules revised the technical indicators for 3A090 chips and related items, expanded the scope of license requirements and the direct product principle for high-computing-power chips, and added end-use controls for advanced computing. Under U.S. sanctions and controls, whether advanced GPUs, HBM products, or advanced packaging equipment for manufacturing AI chips and HBM, supplies to China have basically been cut off.
The manufacturing of chips and memory is the tightest iron chain around the neck of China's AI industry. Among the most critical equipment, in addition to lithography machines, in the entire manufacturing process of AI chips and HBM, 2.5D or 3D advanced packaging—the advanced processes and equipment for chip stacking—is one of the cores. Whether it is SK Hynix, Samsung, or Micron, all currently adopt the TCB process. Among them, SK Hynix uses TCB MR-MUF, while Samsung and Micron mainly use TCB NCF technology. However, with the development of HBM and the arrival of HBM4, as the number of stacked layers increases from 8 to 16 and the IO pitch continues to shrink to around 10 micrometers, the TCB process is also evolving toward Fluxless.
In the past few years, PrecisioNext has been working closely with relevant customers on the development of TCB processes and complete machines, overcoming and building its own nanoscale motion control platform, ultra-high-speed temperature ramping system, automatic leveling system, and formic acid reduction system. On this basis, PrecisioNext has completed the construction of the Loong series TCBonder technology platform and, in response to the needs of different products such as AI chips and HBM, launched the Loong WS and Loong F series products.
Among them, Loong WS can be compatible with C2W and C2S packaging forms, with a maximum accuracy of ±1 um, achieving the same level as the most advanced foreign products, and can support processes such as TCB NCF and TCB MR-MUF.
Loong F is a fluxless process equipment prepared for the next generation of HBM3E and HBM technologies. On the basis of the Loong WS platform, it adds a formic acid reduction system, eliminating the adverse effects brought by flux throughout the entire stacking process, and can directly perform copper-copper bonding, supporting a minimum IO pitch of 15 microns. In the future, as the number of stacked layers in HBM4 increases and IO surges, Loong F will be the most cost-effective solution.
It is believed that with the advancement of China's semiconductor technology and the launch and mass production of Prysmian Intelligent's Loong series TCB equipment, domestic manufacturers will usher in a breakout point in the research, development, and manufacturing of AI chips and HBM products in the near future.
PrecisioNext is a leading domestic semiconductor equipment provider, focusing on top-tier semiconductor packaging technologies at home and abroad. Its products cover everything from traditional packaging equipment to advanced packaging equipment. In the field of traditional packaging equipment, PrecisioNext's 8-inch/12-inch IC-level die bonder series, Clip Bonder high-speed clip welding system series, ultra-high-precision die bonder series, and others have been widely used by major semiconductor packaging and testing companies both domestically and internationally. In the field of advanced packaging equipment, in addition to the Loong series TCB equipment, PrecisioNext has also launched the P-XBonder panel-level massive-transfer laser die bonding machine, which will greatly promote the development of panel-level packaging technology and contribute to the development of China's chip industry.
